Course Outline

Problems facing forecasters

  • Customer demand planning
  • Investor uncertainty
  • Economic planning
  • Seasonal changes in demand/utilization
  • Roles of risk and uncertainty

Time series methods

  • Moving average
  • Exponential smoothing
  • Extrapolation
  • Linear prediction
  • Trend estimation
  • Growth curve

Econometric methods (casual methods)

  • Regression analysis using linear regression or non-linear regression
  • Autoregressive moving average (ARMA)
  • Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
  • Econometrics

Judgemental methods

  • Surveys
  • Delphi method
  • Scenario building
  • Technology forecasting
  • Forecast by analogy

Simulation and other methods

  • Simulation
  • Prediction market
  • Probabilistic forecasting and Ensemble forecasting
  • Reference class forecasting

Requirements

Good Excel or other Spreadsheet knowledge

Solid Maths and Statistics knowledge

 14 Hours

Number of participants


Price per participant

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